Obama Plans Afghan Address Next Week – The Caucus Blog – NYTimes.com

While the president is expected by several of his advisers to announce sending more than 20,000 new troops – perhaps closer to the 40,000, as recommended by Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal – the White House is working to make the announcement more than simply a number of troops. It will include an outline of an exit strategy, officials said.

The “exit strategy” part is fascinating.  There is, I think, precisely one way to actually produce an “exit strategy.”  The argument has to be that we’re temporarily escalating the conflict in order to stem the tide of Taliban advance, but that at the same time we’re opening negotiations with the various insurgent leaders for a cessation of hostilities.

Unless we’re planning to start negotiating now, the “exit” part of the strategy is inherently contingent on the success of counter-insurgency operations, and at that point “exit” becomes synonymous with “victory” which implies “never.”

Given the nature of American politics, I also don’t think it is likely that the president will be able to thread the needle on this one.  Keeping together a domestic coalition to support the war will require him to oversell what we can really accomplish and essentially reduce any potential for future adjustments and flexibility.