I have a new post up at Flashpoint Blog (The Incoherence of COIN Advocates: Andrew Exum Edition)
that challenges Andrew Exum’s writings on Afghanistan, I write:

reading Exum it is hard to avoid the sense that part of the reason he is so attached to his proposed operational concept is that it contains within it a ready made excuse if it happens to fail.  “Don’t blame me.  Blame the Afghans!”

Too harsh?  Let me know.

Also, a quick follow up.  I asked some questions about Tom Ricks last week (Does Anyone Understand What Tom Ricks is Talking About? ). He responded to my request for a clarification of his views by writing:

“I think that the COIN strategy worked in Iraq to improve security, but can’t and won’t lead to a political breakthrough.”

It is a fair sentiment, and probably accurate.  But I wish it would inform his policy recommendations.  Instead, in a another recent post (Iraq, the unraveling (XX): “Time to declare victory and go home?”), Tom argues against a withdrawal, using the weak rhetorical device of throwing out a bunch of possible developments– without assessment of likelihood or analysis of real consequences) — to argue for the status quo:

The question the colonel’s memo begs is just how bad it gets after we leave, and whether Turkey, Iran and more intervene more than they have already. What are the chances of a regional war? Feeling lucky, punk? Well, are you?

What happens after we leave? How do we mitigate the damage done? I really don’t see how hanging a “mission accomplished” banner would work any better for the Obama administration than it did for the Bush administration.

It is a dishonest post, because serious people do talk about concrete steps to mitigate consequences, but whatever.  Ricks is suggesting with remain in Iraq and as far as I can tell continue to pursue a strategy that he acknowledges is unlikely to accomplish its policy purpose.  Why?  Just to buy time?  I don’t want to be unpleasant about it… but Ricks has simply put not invested the intellectual effort to develop a coherent argument on this issue.