Crossposted from:

“on the edge”

That judgment is apparently one of the conclusions of a new National Intelligence Estimate about Pakistan, according the McClatchy (New intelligence report says Pakistan is ‘on the edge’).

The NIE will apparently highlight several trends:

• “The estimate says that the Islamist insurgency based in the Federally Administered Tribal Area bordering Afghanistan, the suspected safe haven of Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenants, is intensifying.”
• “Anti-U.S. and anti-government sentiments have grown recently, stoked by stepped-up cross-border U.S. missile strikes and at least one commando raid on suspected terrorist targets in the FATA that reportedly have resulted in civilian deaths.”
• “The government is also facing an accelerating economic crisis that includes food and energy shortages, escalating fuel costs, a sinking currency and a massive flight of foreign capital accelerated by the escalating insurgency, the NIE warns.”

This is all very bad news. Unfortunately, when confronted by bad news, our response is immediately to try to find solutions. In this case, the United States needs to take a step back and imagine a plausible, long-term relationship with Pakistan and work backwards from there. At a minimum, we should be able to answer three questions:

1. What would U.S. policy be if the current civilian government were to collapse and be supplanted by another military coup?
2. Which countries are our best allies to help manage the situation in Pakistan? In particular, what sort U.S.-Indian cooperation would be possible to contain the risks from Pakistani instability?
3. How would the U.S. respond to a major terrorist attack launched from Pakistani soil?

I suspect that getting clarity on those three issues would do more to inform U.S. policy than a purely reactive response to the current crisis.

Update: From today’s Washington Post: In Scramble for Cash, Pakistan Turns to China